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Historical Prediction - Summary Page

(predictionsummary)

The question here is whether history will also provide helpful guidance in anticipating the future. Can our knowledge of world history be used to predict the future?

This website says “yes”. In the separate pages summarized here one finds an attempt to identify patterns between past civilizations in particular phases of their life cycle that can be applied to our own civilization to anticipate its future course.

Our analysis will necessarily focus upon the earlier civilizations - Civilizations I, II, and III - because that is where the historical facts lie. But we can carry the discussion into the present - Civilization IV - where the life cycle is incomplete, and try to guess what might happen in the future.

My Model of Historical Prediction Building upon Spengler’s and Toynbee’s idea that civilizations exhibit life cycles analogous to the present situation   (2667 words) www.historicalprediction.html - 5 foreign languages

Turning points of world history How to tell when a new civilization will succeed the present one   (12,771 words) www.predictfuture.html - 5 foreign languages

Intimations of a Fifth Civilization How human society and culture may follow the capabilities of computing machines   (13,765 words) www.intimations.html - 5 foreign languages

The End of a Civilization The decline of education and employment portends fundamental change.   (1,891 words) www.challenge.html - 5 foreign languages

 

Patterns in the development of key institutions related to each civilization as humanity passes through four epochs of world history to the present; predictions of how the historical trends might come full circle.

Using world history to predict the future of the first civilization (government)     (5445 words) www.predictlstciv.html - 5 foreign languages

Using world history to predict the future of the second civilization (religion)     (6894 words) www.predict2ndciv.html - 5 foreign languages

Using world history to predict the future of the third civilization (commerce & education)      (8065 words) www.predict3rdciv.html - 5 foreign languages

How U.S. Capitalism might End What comes after Bush's war?   (5256 words) www.capitalismend.html - 5 foreign languages

America approaching the stage of decay Local identity-based communitiesmay emerge to fill the void   (4320 words) www.nationaldecay.html - 5 foreign languages

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Some Skeptical Comments:

Is prediction possible?     (1878 words) www.prediction1.html - 5 foreign languages

Why it’s impossible to predict the future of the stock market and such things     (3165 words) www.prediction2.html - 5 foreign languages

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See also main statement on prediction, "Using world history to predict the future", also accessible from Home Page   (5385 words) www.prediction.html - 10 foreign languages

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